Will a Category Two Hurricane Pound Texas in Less Than Two weeks?
Let me go ahead and answer the question posed by the title of this post. The answer is probably not, but maybe.
Forecasting Texas weather can be a pretty embarrassing job sometimes. Mother Nature is known for throwing more curve balls than a Wiffle Ball pitcher. Getting the forecast right over the next 24 hours in the Pineywoods can be a challenge. So, when of the main computer weather models puts out a forecast for what's going to happen some 300 hours from now, many grains of salt should be taken.
That all being said, every once in a while, these 'ensemble' long-range forecasts actually get it right. So, let's dig a little deeper into the possibility of a strong hurricane threatening the Texas coast line in about two weeks time. According to a Facebook Post on the Tropical Storm Central Facebook Page, the Global Forecast System (GFS) has run the numbers and it is predicted that a rather strong hurricane could be just off the coast of Matagorda Bay by Monday, August 16. The model predicts that this cyclone will have a central pressure of about 976 millibars, which translates to a Category 1 to Category 2 hurricane.
Now, even the Global Forecast System is one of the go-to models when it comes to predicting long-term forecasts in the USA, we should once again realize this a long-term forecast that is running the numbers for something that could happen nearly two weeks from now. These long-range forecasting systems have a tendency to completely change their outlook at a moment's notice. The other trusted weather models that are pretty standard to the forecasts in the United States show no indication for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico during that time.
So, basically, what I'm saying is that hurricane that's shown to be off the Texas coastline on August 16, probably will never materialize. However, I'm also saying that if a hurricane does come on shore the third week of August, you were warned.