How many meteorologists does it take to forecast the track of a hurricane?

Answer:  All of them, and they still can't get it right.

Okay,'s a joke, no disrespect intended, heck, meteorology was my major in college, so I understand that long range forecasting is a very inexact science.


Just this past weekend, the most trusted weather models from across the globe had this tropical system making landfall in one of four places - near Tampico, Mexico or around Brownsville or near Corpus Christi or around Beaumont. Just a few days later, none of those sites are even in the updated landfall cone.


Louisiana is now drawing the bull's-eye for Ida.  The entire Louisiana coastline is within the realm of a hurricane landfall by late Sunday, but most of the models are in agreement that the area from Morgan City to New Orleans will take the brunt of the storm.  The bad news is that rapid intensification could lead to a Category 3 hurricane as it hits the coastline.  Top sustained winds of 120 mph are possible, gusts to 150 mph could happen.  This doesn't mean folks in Lake Charles should let their guard down.  After last year's hurricane season, the last thing they want or need is for Ida to bear down on them, but it's still a possibility.


Keep in mind that I'm writing this about 50-60 hours before landfall.  A lot of variances can happen between now and then, but it's looking like decent news for Deep East Texas.  Our rain chances will increase over the weekend and through Tuesday, but forecasters are expected about an inch of rain to fall through the period for parts of the Pineywoods.

Monday will bring us the strongest winds from Ida, but even then, gusts to 25 mph will be about the maximum.

Once again, this all depends upon Ida taking the track that the models are suggesting.  If that changes, we will definitely update you here and on our KICKS 105 App.

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Wanna know some of the costliest weather catastrophes in the recent past?  Take a look at these:

LOOK: The most expensive weather and climate disasters in recent decades

Stacker ranked the most expensive climate disasters by the billions since 1980 by the total cost of all damages, adjusted for inflation, based on 2021 data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The list starts with Hurricane Sally, which caused $7.3 billion in damages in 2020, and ends with a devastating 2005 hurricane that caused $170 billion in damage and killed at least 1,833 people. Keep reading to discover the 50 of the most expensive climate disasters in recent decades in the U.S.

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