East Texas in The Target Zone of Alarming Tornado, Hail Threat

The forecast for East Texas is concerning. I don't mean to scare anyone, but the latest forecast issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Oklahoma shows much of East Texas in harm's way for severe weather Monday through Wednesday.

Let's Go Right to Tuesday

Early Monday morning, the SPC issued its latest guidance for severe weather and a 23,000 square mile swath that includes Huntsville, Lufkin, Nacogdoches, and Beaumont is at ground zero for tornadoes of at least EF2 strength (111+ mph).

The map above shows that Deep East Texas is at risk for significant severe weather on Tuesday, with a 10% probability of a strong tornado touching down within 25 miles of any point in the hatched area.

As indicated by the map below, large hail is also a threat to the Pineywoods on Tuesday. Much of the Brazos Valley is also included in the target zone for the worst of the hail threat.

Strong to severe storms could start happening during the morning hours on Tuesday, but, it appears that the worst of the threat should be during the afternoon and evening hours.

Monday's Severe Weather Outlook

The severe weather on Monday looks to be concentrated over much of the area that will be experiencing the greatest magnitude of the solar eclipse.

That's not good news for viewing and not a good scenario of putting millions of travelers in harm's way for severe weather. It looks like the worst of the threat (mostly super large hail) will be concentrated from near Midland to Wichita Falls to Fort Worth.

Hail the size of tennis balls is possible in this region.

Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook

Much of the severe weather threat shifts into Louisiana and Mississippi on Wednesday. A worrisome tornado outbreak could be in the works for places like Alexandria, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans.

However, as you can see, East Texas is still in the 'slight' zone for severe weather, especially through the early morning hours on Wednesday.

Don't Forget About the Flood Threat

Three days of storms will also bring about the possibility of flooding. In fact, the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for much of East Texas and Louisiana through Wednesday evening. 3-6 inches of rain is expected across the Pineywoods, with rainfall amounts over 8 inches possible in northern Louisiana.

Angelina and Nacogdoches Counties are included in the watch, but not counties south of that.

Stay Alert and Stay Informed

The forecast over the next three days is concerning. The outlook for Tuesday in Deep East Texas is especially so.

Please monitor changing weather conditions and have a plan in place if severe weather threatens your area.

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