Warm...Warm...and Then...

The final week of October 2023 will bring East Texas above-average temperatures for this time of year. We will be experiencing highs in the low to mid-80s through early next week, which is about 5-10 degrees above what we normally have.

But then...get ready for a DRASTIC change!

October 31, 2023, could be one of the coldest on record for East Texas.

What The Models Are Predicting

I usually rely on the GFS and the ECMWF Model Charts. Those two models don't necessarily agree with each other when predicting the weather more than a week out, but this time, they are in agreement. So, the major Halloween cold snap deserves a higher amount of confidence than I would usually give it.

GFS

The Global Forecast System is American-based and under the umbrella of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Here is how they believe October 31 will play out in East Texas.

The leading edge of a powerful and blustery cold front will move across East Texas late Monday night (October 30). A rapid 20-30 degree temperature drop should take place within 3-4 hours of its arrival.

By the time the sun rises on Halloween morning, temperatures in Lufkin and Nacogdoches should be in the mid-40s, possibly the low 40s across Tyler/Longview.

via GIPHY

Cold rain is also possible throughout the Pineywoods on October 31, but, as of now, the showers should taper off by evening.

North winds gusting above 25 mph are expected. When it comes time for evening trick or treating, the temperatures will be hovering near 50 degrees, and with that wind, we could have wind chill readings in the low 40s.

ECMWF

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast is based in Europe. The Halloween scenario it is painting for East Texas doesn't differ much from the GFS model.

The timing of the cold front's arrival coincides with the GFS interpretation, but overall temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer. The ECMWF is forecasting temperatures to hold in the mid-50s throughout the day and evening on October 31.

 

via GIPHY

 

Scattered showers should occur across most of East Texas and the ECMWF is in agreement with the GFS that strong northerly winds will add to the chilliness for trick or treating.

Record-Setting Cold?

Lufkin's lowest maximum temperature for October 31 happened in 1993 when the high temperature only reached 53. We could give that record a run for its money. Tyler's lowest max occurred in 1925 when the temperature only reached 47. Right now, that record looks to be safe.

Things Could Change

That's always the case when you try to pinpoint the weather a week out. These forecast models could go in a completely different direction within the next 24 hours.

 

But, just in case this forecast comes true, you may want to start making contingency plans for trick or treating as well as what type of costumes your kids wear.

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